Saanich initiated a regional Ice and Dry Floor Demand Analysis to determine whether existing arena supply across Greater Victoria could meet current and future demand, following earlier findings that at least one new ice sheet would be required. The study addressed unmet ice and dry floor needs, aging facilities, and equitable access considerations across a 13-municipality region.
Background
Process
The study evaluated current arena utilization using four years of booking data, stakeholder surveys, and operator interviews, revealing the system operates at or near capacity during high season and prime time. Future demand was modelled using latent demand factors, population growth forecasts, recreation trends, and strategic priorities, leading to a feasibility assessment of single-sheet and twin-sheet arena options.
Solution
The analysis confirmed a regional shortfall of 2.5 ice sheets by 2031 and 3.9 sheets by 2041, even before accounting for the upcoming closure of one existing arena asset. Accommodation options were developed, including single and twin ice-sheet concepts, with capital, lifecycle cost estimates, and site requirement estimates to guide future decision-making and investment prioritization.
The Results
68
average regional utilization during high season in the current state
76
increase in projected demand by 2041
3.9
ice sheet deficit in 20 years
